☕ This Week in Texas Politics — and What to Watch
Week of July 20–26, 2026
The short version: the Senate money gap became a chasm, the Hill Country flooded again, and the Houston ICE case took another turn. Here’s what came in this week and what to keep an eye on.
What happened last week
The Senate money story is now historic. Both campaigns filed their official second-quarter FEC reports, and the numbers are lopsided: Talarico reported $31.6 million to Paxton’s $9.3 million. Since the start of 2025, Talarico has raised a cumulative $72 million to Paxton’s $16.8 million, and ended June with $23.3 million on hand — more than triple his rival. The tell is who’s giving: 97% of Talarico’s donations were $100 or less, with teachers his most common donor. By contrast, 88% of Paxton’s money came from larger donors.
But money isn’t the whole picture — and here’s the catch. The race is still effectively tied in polling and tilts slightly Republican in prediction markets. And Paxton just got a structural lifeline: the Supreme Court struck down federal limits on how much political parties can spend in coordination with their candidates. Because national party committees can accept up to $44,300 per year from a single donor versus $3,500 per election for a candidate, Republicans are expected to benefit more from their stronger large-donor base. So Talarico’s grassroots edge may get partly neutralized by party money on the other side.
The Hill Country flooded again, with life-threatening flooding striking the region, at least one summer camp evacuating, and others monitoring — a raw echo of last year’s tragedy, which residents there are still living with. Lawmakers spent the week arguing whether the flood-safety laws passed in 2025 are actually making a difference.
The Houston ICE case ground on. The FBI has suggested the plastic bags in Lorenzo Salgado Araujo’s van contained methamphetamine but still hasn’t released official test results, while the family’s attorney continues to dispute it. Unresolved, and still moving. The Texas Tribune
Worth a footnote: Talarico gave $2,500 to an Austin group that sought to “defund” the police after George Floyd’s death — expect the Paxton campaign to hammer this. And a ProPublica/Texas Tribune report is raising questions about where Paxton has voted in six elections; his campaign calls it “baseless.”
What to watch this week
- Party coordination spending. Now that the Supreme Court has opened the floodgates, watch whether the national GOP starts moving big coordinated money into Texas for Paxton. This is the number that could quietly erase Talarico’s cash lead.
- Flood response politics. Whether the renewed Hill Country flooding turns into a fight over disaster funding and the 2025 safety laws — and whether it reaches the governor’s race.
- The Secretary of State seat. Still vacant after Jane Nelson’s July 17 departure. Watch for Abbott to name an acting replacement, with the closed-primary lawsuit and voter-roll fights hanging over the office five months out.
- Lab results in the Salgado Araujo case, which would either substantiate or collapse the government’s account.
- New attacks. Both campaigns are sharpening for the fall — expect the police-funding and voting-record lines to escalate.
🗣️ Covfefe tomorrow — three conversation starters
- “He’s raised four times the money and it’s still a tossup — what does that tell us?” Gets at whether money or candidate quality decides a red-state race, and why 97%-small-dollar matters more than the top-line number.
- “The Supreme Court just made party money unlimited. Good or bad for us?” A real tension — it cuts both ways, but likely helps Paxton more here. Good for the folks who like a policy argument.
- “Teachers are Talarico’s #1 donor. Sound familiar?” Ties the national race straight back to your own Gone Teaching work and the local teacher-candidate energy.